You may not have heard of Alex Honnold, but if you haven’t, these pictures will tell you pretty much everything you need to know:

Notice anything in the photos? Do you see what isn’t in the photos?

Alex Honnold is one of, if not the, best rock-climbers in the world, and is knowing for climbing “free solo.” That is, he climbs routes both alone (solo) and without a rope (free). He was the subject of an award-winning documentary, Free Solo.

This blog has nothing to do with rock climbing, so why bring him up? Because what he does is incredibly dangerous. At one point in the documentary, someone comments that he is taking quite a risk on his climbs, and his response is insightful. This is not an exact quote, but he says something like:

It’s not risky. The consequences are fatal if I make a mistake, but it’s unlikely that I’ll make a mistake, so my risk is actually quite low.

What Honnold distinguishes here is the difference between the consequences if a problem arises and the likelihood of that problem arising. Since he is such an experienced climber and practices routes endlessly before he makes a free ascent, it’s unlikely that he would make a mistake. So, even though the consequences of a mistake are severe (almost surely fatal), his overall risk can surprisingly be low because the likelihood is so low.

For expats who face risks in their host country that differ from risks in their passport country, this distinction is incredibly helpful, and yet, it doesn’t go far enough. Today, I’ll share with you a method of assessing risk across four elements that will be particularly useful to expats.

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The typical idea of risk

Most people view risk as if it contained one element, like this:

In this way of thinking, an activity is either risky or not. What Honnold rightly identifies, though, is that you can think of risk more accurately by distinguishing between the elements of likelihood and consequences. If we charted that out, it would look something like this:

This is a more accurate measure of risk and we intuitively make this assessment all the time:

• Plane crashes have high consequences (often killing everyone on board), but the likelihood of one is so low that most people get on planes without qualms.¹
• The consequences of being kidnapped are quite high, but in most places the likelihood is quite low and so we don’t fear when going out of our house.
• The consequences of getting food poisoning at a restaurant are high, but the likelihood in most restaurants is low and so we still go.
• The consequences of facing an active shooter are potentially high—most people escape, but some are severely injured or killed. Yet, despite the news, the likelihood is still quite low (even in the US) and so most people go about their daily lives without fear.²
• The risk of a pickpocket is quite high in many places of the world, yet the consequences are relatively small and so we still go outside on the street.

Separating the likelihood and consequences of an event is an incredibly helpful way to evaluate your overall risk, but it doesn’t go far enough for expats because of the unique risks we face due to geography and ethnography.

The risks an expat faces

We can expand the model of risk from merely considering two elements—likelihood and consequences—so that it can better reflect the particular challenges we face. What we’re going to do is add two more elements to our risk assessment: geographic proximity and ethnographic similarity.³

Consider:

• Plane crashes overall are unlikely, but in some areas of some countries the risk is much higher than typical (geographic proximity). Some areas have older aircraft, poorer maintenance, less experienced pilots, etc., and so your total risk is higher because of the geographic proximity that changes your overall risk.
• Perhaps the likelihood of a kidnapping in your area is quite low, but if all the kidnappings are of foreigners (ethnographic similarity), then your total risk goes up because you may be specifically targeted for a kidnapping. On the other hand, if all of the kidnappings are locals because they don’t want to hurt tourists, then your risk could be lower because you’re ethnographically dissimilar.
• If a particular restaurant or the restaurants in a particular area are known for having unsafe food (geographic proximity), then we’ll avoid those restaurants because they’re much riskier to eat at than other places.
• There are areas known for having higher gun violence than others (geographic proximity) and so we avoid those areas because it affects our overall risk.
• Pickpocketing is an interesting example because pickpockets often target tourists (ethnographic similarity) and are more likely to be in some places than others (geographic proximity). Thus, we avoid those areas or take extra precautions if we go there

If we charted out this four-element method of assessing risk, it would look like this:

Putting it to work: A case study

Being able to distinguish between these different elements that affect your risk is incredibly useful when you’re making decisions about risk. Let me demonstrate this with a story I heard of a doctor who was doing medical work amidst a civil war—bullets flying, ethnic cleansing, guerrilla warfare, that kind of civil war. It was an admittedly dangerous situation, but consider how different an assessment of risk comes out if you use these different ideas of risk.

On the face of it, being in a civil war zone is risky: 9/10 (90%)

If we can more accurately distinguish between consequences and likelihood, we get a better assessment. The likelihood of being caught up in the conflict was moderate, but the consequences remain severe and so this still appears quite risky: 50/100 (50%)

But if we add geographic proximity and ethnographic similarity, we get a more accurate and better picture. He actually lived and worked 45 minutes away from the fighting in an area that both sides were intentionally not attacking. His geographic proximity was thus quite low. Why not? Because it was an area with a lot of foreigners (NGOs, WHO, embassies, etc.) and neither side wanted to hurt the nation’s international reputation. Thus, because both sides were intentionally protecting foreigners, his ethnographic similarity to the danger was also quite low.

When you assess it this way, you get a more accurate picture of the risk that the doctor faced: 56/400 (14%)

Because this doctor assessed his risk more accurately, using these four elements, he was able to stay and save hundreds of lives without actually facing much risk himself. If his method of assessing risk was just the first or even the second way, those lives would have been lost. An accurate assessment enabled him to be more careful (avoid the areas with conflict!) while also doing the good that he felt he should do.

How this assessment method will help you

The purpose of using a more nuanced risk assessment tool isn’t to be academic and make things more complicated just for the sake of being complex. Instead, I hope the above case study demonstrates how this four-element risk assessment tool enables you to better evaluate the risks you face and identify how to reduce those risk elements.

1. The tool enables accurate risk assessment

This tool will help you more accurately assess the risk that you face because it more accurately distinguishes between elements that comprise “risk.” By evaluating geographic proximity, ethnographic similarity, likelihood, and consequences, we can make a more accurate judgment at how risky something is. Now the numbers aren’t scientific—are you really sure that each number is a 7 and not an 8?—but they are a helpful gauge and metric of the risks you face.

This is important because there is risk that we should flee—and flee early—but avoiding that risk comes with a cost. You leave your home, probably possessions, relationships, and whatever good you were doing in your job. Sometimes the risk is worth the cost; other times the risk isn’t worth cost. Having a more accurate measure of risk is crucial to being able to make that judgment.

2. The tool enables risk reduction

More accurately assessing your risk with this tool also enables you to reduce the risk that you’re facing in a more comprehensive way. Let’s say, for example, that you need to travel and are concerned about the risk of a carjacking as you drive. Here’s how you assess the risk:

• Likelihood: 3/10. You estimate a 30% risk that it would happen to you.
• Consequences: 8/10. The carjackers have shown they may become violent or murder during a carjacking.
• Geographic proximity: 8/10. The area you’re driving through is notorious for carjackings.
• Ethnographic similarity: 10/10. Let’s say the carjackers especially target white foreigners and you’re white.

Overall, your risk is pretty high: 208/400 (52% of maximum risk):

If you want to reduce your risk, what can you do? You can’t control the carjackers, but seeing these four elements of risk enables you to more thoroughly work to reduce your overall risk.

Reduce the ethnographic similarity

People who look like white tourists are specifically being targeted, so how could you go about reducing this risk?

• Hire a local person to drive you in the dangerous spot (or the whole way).
• Disguise your appearance. Wear long sleeves, sunglasses, a droopy hat, a scarf, and a face mask to cover up as much of your appearance as you can. Put on a burqa if you need to. Just make sure that you don’t look like a white foreigner, but as a local.⁴

Reduce the consequences

The loss of a car is bad, but the biggest consequence comes if a carjacking becomes violent. So, what can you do to prevent that?

• Put the car keys on a separate ring from your house keys so that you can give them over without fiddling.
• Leave the car running, if it is, so they can make a fast escape. Their speed is your safety.
• Don’t grab anything from the car so they don’t think you’re grabbing a gun.
• Get out and bend over so you appear small and non-threatening. Be alert, but small.
• Run away without looking at them so you’re not a threat to their fast escape.
• Make sure you have insurance on the car so its loss doesn’t hurt you.
• Don’t keep valuables in the car so that you don’t lose much if the car is taken. Perhaps travel light and buy stuff at your destination rather than have it in the car with you.
• Etc.⁵

By reducing the consequences of a carjacking, you reduce the overall risk you’d face of one.

Reduce the geographic proximity

If there’s a specific area that is prone to carjackings, how can you reduce the risk?

• Avoid it! If you have to drive an extra hour or two to be safe, so be it.
• Avoid the area at specific times. Maybe daylight is fine, but evening isn’t. Plan your travel accordingly.

Reduce the likelihood

What can you do so that it’s less likely someone will try to carjack your car?

• Drive an old model car and not a luxury model.
• Get your car dirty and muddy.
• Dent up your car or paint graffiti on it so it’s less attractive. Extreme, but less expensive than losing your car.

Considering these four aspects of risk enables you not only to more accurately gauge the risk, but it gives you more avenues to consider how you can reduce the risk. Do them all, and the total risk you face is greatly reduced.

Get this tool (and more) for free!

The screenshots I’ve shared throughout this article are from a spreadsheet I’ve made to visual these risk elements. It’s not complex, but I’d love to share with you (and without the URL in the middle)!

Just sign up for my email newsletter and not only will you get this free tool, but I’ll give you a free chapter of my book and you’ll never miss out on another article I write!

Conclusion

Understanding and accurately assessing risk is crucial for expats navigating the complexities of living in a foreign environment. By utilizing a four-element method that includes likelihood, consequences, geographic proximity, and ethnographic similarity, you can gain a clearer and more nuanced picture of the risks you face. This approach not only helps you make more informed decisions about your safety and well-being but also allows you to take proactive steps to reduce those risks in ways that are both practical and effective.

Whether you’re dealing with potential hazards in your host country or evaluating the safety of your daily activities, this comprehensive risk assessment tool will enable you to approach decisions with greater confidence and clarity. By applying these principles, you can better protect yourself and your loved ones while still embracing the opportunities and experiences that life as an expat offers.

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Footnotes

1. The fact that some people are scared of flying doesn’t change this assessment, because what do you do when someone is scared? We share with them the statistics of the likelihood of a crash, demonstrating to them that the risk is so low that fear is irrational. ↩︎
2. The FBI reports that in 2023 the US had 48 “active shooter” incidents in the entire US. Over the course of 365 days and with a population of 334 million, your odds of being near the killer on the specific day they are shooting is incredibly low. If you know how to calculate the odds, lemme know as I’d love to put the actual stat here. ↩︎
3. This four-element risk assessment is not something I came up with, but I can’t remember where I learned it. If you know who originated it, please let me know because I’d love to give credit where credit is due. ↩︎
4. While wearing blackface will get you canceled in the West (unless your name is Trudeau), in a life or death situation…things may be different. ↩︎
5. If you’d like to know more about how to survive a carjacking, Jason Hanson’s book Spy Secrets That Can Save Your Life or Bear Grylls’ How to Stay Alive: The Ultimate Survival Guide for Any Situation are great resources. ↩︎